| 21 September 2011
This is competition #2 in the Western Conference.
Out of the 15 teams in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder has arguably the most promising future ahead of them. After posting a miserable 20-62 record during their inaugural season from Seattle to Oklahoma City during the 2008-2009 season, the Thunder stormed back the following year with a 50-32 record and threatened the defending champion Lakers in the opening round of the 2010 playoffs.
Who knows how that series would've turned out if Pau Gasol hadn't been in the right place at the right time to putback Kobe Bryant's missed fallaway jumper at the buzzer in Game 6?
Last season, the Thunder were able to reach the Western Conference Finals but were eliminated in 5 games by the eventual 2011 NBA champs Dallas Mavericks. In that series, the collective experience of the Mavs turned out to be the deciding factor that led to another frustrating but important post-season for the Thunder.
As we all know, playoff mettle doesn't happen overnight. But if this young and talent-packed Thunder team keeps improving from their mistakes, we could be looking at the team to beat in the west for years to come.
But have they become too good right now for the Lakers? Let's take a look.
Matching Up
POINT GUARD: With the current roster, the Lakers have no definable edge here at all. It's a possibility that Kobe will be put on Russell Westbrook, but even that has no guarantee this matchup will favor the Lakers defensively. Advantage: THUNDER
SHOOTING GUARD: James Harden can be an impressive scorer when he gets going. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't shown that he can step up his game and be consistent enough to challenge Kobe. Advantage: LAKERS
SMALL FORWARD: Can't mention Lakers and Thunder without Artest and dynamo-scorer Kevin Durant. Ron has had success defending "Durantula" in the playoffs before. Artest may have struggled against athletic scorers last season, but Durant still have yet to prove that he can find real success against good, physical defense that Ron brings. Advantage: LAKERS
POWER FORWARD: Serge Ibaka is one energetic pogo stick of a defender that can cause some headaches on the opposition. But, he still doesn't have enough moxy to keep Pau from being a factor in this series. Advantage: LAKERS
CENTER: Sour-faced Kendrick Perkins is one strong, intimidating customer on the defensive paint. But, he's still not big or athletic enough to stop Andrew Bynum from doing major damage in the post. Advantage: LAKERS
BENCH: About the only 2 guys I expect making any significant contributions on the Thunder reserves are Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. Sefolosha is their primary defender against Bryant, and Collison has been known as a deep paper cut around the boards. Over the years, Kobe has become a smarter scorer against Thabo, so I don't think there's anything new Sefolosha could bring defensively that Bryant hasn't seen before or won't anticipate from him. As for Collison, he isn't consistent enough and doesn't play heavy enough minutes to really offset Lamar Odom's production. Advantage: LAKERS
COACHING: Scott Brooks has done a heckuva job since taking over for P.J. Carlesimo in 2008, but Mike Brown has been in the Finals twice before (won a ring with the Spurs in 2003 as an assistant and took the Cavs to the 2007 Finals against San Antonio). Interestingly enough, Brooks has a 3-2 record against Brown as a head coach from 2008-2010. Will that success continue now that Brown is coaching the Lakers? Hard to tell. But, that all depends upon 2 things: 1. How well he can sell his philosophies to the team. 2. How much the players embrace those philosophies. I have a feeling that won't be a problem, though. Advantage: LAKERS
The Series Changers
LAKERS: Ron Artest
The Lakers probably would've lost against the Thunder in 2010 if Artest decided to stay in Houston. So, I have this gut feeling he'll be the key guy should these 2 teams meet again in the playoffs. If Ron continues to control Durant, the Lakers are in great shape.
THUNDER: Russell Westbrook
Even with Durant, Westbrook's offensive production and, especially, his decision-making are often the difference between winning and losing for OKC. Turnovers in the 4th quarter have been a serious pattern for Russell. He's a career 3.5 turnovers per game during the regular season, but in just the 23 playoff games he played the last 2 seasons, he's averaging 4 per contest. Not the kind of stat you'd want to see from your star point guard.
Watch Out For...
Serge Ibaka: This guy is already one of the top help defenders and was one of the top shot blockers in the NBA last season. He's not known for his offense, but he's shown he can hit that open mid-range jumper and has always been an excellent target for an alley-oop pass. Ibaka came up huge defensively for Spain with 5 blocks when they defeated France for Spain's back-to-back European title. That experience should give him a ton of confidence in the playoffs.
Key Matchup
Ron Artest vs. Kevin Durant: Westbrook is potentially going to be a migraine for the Lakers, but he should get plenty of attention from Brown. Durant, however, is a different story. With Artest's success against him in the past, there's really no reason for the Lakers to adjust their defense to focus on Durant until it's obvious Ron needs help. If he doesn't, the Thunder are in trouble.
Keys for the Lakers
Defense: The Lakers are facing the 2-time scoring champ and the top young team in the league. Factor in the collective age for both teams and the surging potency of the Thunder after a good run in the playoffs last year, and there's no question the Lakers better pay attention on defense.
Pace: Fatigue is going to be the underlying concern for the Lakers in this series since the Thunder will challenge their weary legs each opportunity they can get. It's extremely important for the Lakers control the pace of each quarter of each game by running their halfcourt offense and utilizing the bulk of the shot clock.
Bench: There's a good chance the starting lineup for the Lakers could get into foul trouble for much of the series. Not only that, it will be crucial for them to sustain their momentum and/or lead even when starters are not on the floor. Odom will need to rebound, defend and be extra aggressive on offense. Steve Blake must make sure the offense runs through the post and not let his man beat him defensively too often. Matt Barnes needs to play smarter defense but also be active around the boards and everywhere on the floor. Most importantly, the Laker reserves can't let the Thunder bench outscore and outhustle them more times than not or things can turn ugly for the purple and gold in a hurry.
The Outcome
With Durant and Westbrook leading the offense and Perkins, Ibaka and Sefolosha manning the defensive end, the Thunder can be an overwhelmingly dangerous opponent in any 7-game series. However, their lack of a definitive post-offense and insufficient experience in the playoffs are still their biggest problems against teams like the Lakers and Dallas.
It's great to have a franchise player who can score as much as Durant, but that's really the extent of his game right now. He's still a mediocre defender, doesn't know the meaning of a good shot selection and has yet to learn to manipulate the defense to open up opportunities for his teammates on offense.
Moreover, Westbrook's low awareness on both sides of the floor and his tendency to outguess himself when the game is on the line are things that offset nearly all the positives he brings to the team. Until he learns to be a better point guard, the Thunder will continue to lose in the playoffs.
As for the Lakers, they can't afford to look at the Thunder like the same team they faced in 2010. Although, they failed against Dallas last season, OKC showed a lot of improvements in playing on the road and in recognizing what needs to be done in certain situations out on the floor. Credit their coaching staff for that.
General census says youth, speed and athleticism will be the Thunder's edge over the older Lakers. However, I didn't see these same so-called advantages do them any good against Dallas last year.
Even with the current roster for both teams, the Lakers still have more weapons to use against OKC.
A mad, determined Kobe is never a good sight for any team. The problem there for OKC is they only have Sefolosha who has any hint of hope defending him, and Bryant looks like he's already adapted against his defense last season. They might use Durant as a secondary defender, but that will leave the Thunder scrambling too much and could get Durant in foul trouble.
But, Gasol and Andrew are really the Thunder's biggest problems. They both have the size advantage and skill advantage over any big for the Thunder. Ibaka might have better success on defense than Perkins, but he relies too much on his shot-blocking to be really effective against Pau, who has enough moves to give any defender a variety of problems.
If Artest isn't the X Factor in this series for the Lakers, Odom is and he's another player I expect to have a solid playoff run. If Lamar does more than his 10.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs against the Thunder, the Lakers simply win.
In the end, the overall talent and superior experience for the Lakers will be too much for the Thunder to handle once again. Of course, the danger for the Lakers is they might not have all of their starters healthy in the playoffs. If that happens, this is going to be a series that will push them right at the edge and will leave them with a paper thin room for errors.
The flip side is OKC's offense, which is perimeter, will need to deliver each quarter of every game. Against the Lakers, Durant will have to score at least 30 points each game for the Thunder to have a chance at beating them. Westbrook is next in line but he thinks his jumper is better than it really is. When the game is on the line, he opts to take 3-pointers rather than attacking the rim. That's not gonna help them at all.
This series really boils down to the Thunder's outside shooting versus the inside-out threat of the Lakers. In other words, a 1 dimensional offense versus a 2 dimensional offense. Factor in the percentages of good quality shots, the overall defense, collective talent for both teams and total experience, the Lakers simply has more to bring to the table.
Previous "The Competition" MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, SAN ANTONIO SPURS
