| 10 September 2011
This is competition #3 of the Western Conference.
It wasn't until the acquisition of Zach Randolph and the emergence of Marc Gasol that the Grizzlies started heading in the right direction despite already having 2 of the NBA's better young talents in Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. That's because it's quite difficult to survive in the playoffs without any inside presence on either end of the floor.
Still, no one could've predicted what they did without Gay last season. Not only did they challenged the top team in the west, they also eliminated them. Could it be that Randolph is the missing piece of the puzzle they've been waiting for? Judging by the chemistry they showed last season and how much effort Zach put into the entire year, I think they may have found it.
If Memphis keeps their core and add a solid backup for either Randolph or Gasol, don't be surprised to see this team every single playoffs from here on out.
Matching Up
POINT GUARD: Whether he deserved that 5-year, $45-million extension he signed last November or not, Mike Conley has been killing the Lakers of late. In the 4 games against the purple and gold last season, Conley averaged 17.2 points and 5.2 assists while shooting, get this, 57.4% from the field and 75% from behind the arc. Of course, his shooting went way down in the playoffs but he still averaged a combined 15.2 points and 6.4 assists per game last year versus both Tony Parker and defensive-minded Russell Westbrook. Again, until we see how the Lakers play defense under Mike Brown next season, I'll have to go by what happened last season. Advantage: GRIZZLIES
SHOOTING GUARD: If Memphis can re-sign Shane Battier and Sam Young, the Grizzlies will, again, have the most quality defenders to throw at Kobe Bryant than any other team in the league. Tony Allen will most likely get the first watch on Bryant, but Battier's size and smarter defense are actually more effective over Allen's harassing, over-playing defense. But will these two be enough to deter Kobe? Some would argue the opposite, but i say not really. Advantage: LAKERS
SMALL FORWARD: Ron Artest will take on the brunt of trying to stop Gay from scoring...a lot. He did an outstanding job defending Kevin Durant in the 2010 playoffs, but that was then, this is now. He's turning 32 this upcoming November and had trouble guarding athletic scorers like Rudy last year. He may say he'll be ready for the playoffs next season, but saying something is a whole lot different than actually doing something. If Ron/Metta doesn't invest enough of himself to help the Lakers, the purple and gold might not reach the Finals at all. On the other hand, Gay is coming off of a season-ending surgery on his shoulder. How that affects his shooting or aggressiveness on both ends of the floor remains to be seen. But considering he has 82 games before the playoffs, that shoulder might not be a factor at all. Advantage: GRIZZLIES
POWER FORWARD: Randolph may have been the key guy against the Spurs, but he turned out to be one of those to be blamed for their Game 7 loss (17 points on 6-for-15 shooting) to the Thunder. He may have improved his defense last season, but it's still his post offense that really separates this Grizzlies team from their past. But there's still that question of how well he can score against and defend playoff veterans Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Advantage: LAKERS
CENTER: Ah, the most intriguing matchup of this series. Andrew Bynum is the more potent inside man while Marc Gasol has the touch outside. Defensively, both guys are the anchor for their teams and can change the tide of the game just by presence alone. However, Andrew's athleticism, quicker feet and better stamina will prove to be the unsung factors in his favor. Advantage: LAKERS
BENCH: Odom will do his thing, but this is a series where Steve Blake and Matt Barnes will be crucial. If Derek Fisher isn't doing it against Conley defensively (which will probably happen), Blake should be next in line to deal with him. Of course, there's always a possibility that one (or both) of the rookies Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock would have already earned graces from Mike Brown to be a major part of the bench. But until that happens, I'll pencil in the regulars for now. Barnes will also be defending Gay and will be counted on to be the defensive disruptor and grabbing rebounds. The Grizzlies are an excellent rebounding team. The more guys who can match them on the boards, the better chances the Lakers have against them.
The Series Changers
LAKERS: Ron Artest
Gay is still Memphis' primary perimeter threat. If Ron can minimize his damage offensively, that will put extra pressure in both Conley and Mayo to produce more points. With their bigs expected to have some tough time against the Lakers frontline, their outside shooters will be vital in this series. But if Gay struggles against Artest, that will throw a huge wrench into their offensive cogs.
GRIZZLIES: O.J. Mayo
Starter or not, Mayo is too offensively talented to ignore. He'll most likely come off the bench again this upcoming season which means that whoever is guarding him for the Lakers better not worry about anything else but guard him. Mayo averaged 16 points in 26 minutes per game as the source of offense for the bench last year. He struggled a bit as the 6th man in the beginning but started getting used to his new role by the end of last year. Like Odom before, I expect Mayo to improve and relish being the top bench guy next season.
Watch Out For...
Shane Battier: This guy just might prove to be the X factor for the Grizzlies in this series. He's got a lot of experience going up against Kobe in the playoffs, and he has a knack for hitting HUGE 3s, as well. Out of their entire bench, Battier is the one who has a history of being a big nuisance to the Lakers.
Key Matchup
Pau Gasol vs. Zach Randolph: To really compete with the Lakers, the Grizzlies need Randolph to have a big series. Then again, the Lakers also need Pau to do the same against this team. He'll have to battle Zach in the boards, defend and keep attacking him on offense to, at the very least, match his production. Zach may have the bulk, but he really doesn't know how to use it. That's why he often pumpfakes and tries to score around and under bigger defenders. If Pau can often force Zach into tough shots, become a playmaker on offense and make him use his feet a lot on defense, the Lakers will be in great shape.
Keys For The Lakers
Defense: If Mayo returns to their starting lineup, the Grizzlies have one of the most potent starting 5 in the league. They can score from anywhere having both an inside and outside go-to guys. However, the Lakers only need to take care of one area of Memphis' offense to take care of business.
Rebounding: A major staple of Memphis' strength for years now, but you can't just point at their starting frontcourt for their ability to gobble up missed shots. Allen, Hamed Haddadi, and Darrell Arthur can fight around the boards as well. Boxing out hasn't exactly been an artform for the Lakers despite having 3 long guys to do the job. Needless to say, rebounding will have to be an agenda at the top of their list in this series.
The Outcome
Despite all the improvements they've done and all the talent they have, the Grizzlies are still relatively rookies when it comes to post-season play. Randolph turned 30 last July and is currently an unrestricted free-agent along with Battier. Those are 2 key guys from their playoff run last season. It will be interesting what GM Chris Wallace and team owner Michael Heisley decide what to do once (or if) the lockout has been lifted. Battier will most likely be allowed to go somewhere else, but are the Grizzlies willing to give Randolph the final max contract of his career?
But if they do, Randolph isn't mean enough to really threaten the Lakers much like the rest of the team. Granted they've come a long ways as an organization and as a squad, but playoff mettle doesn't happen overnight. Against the Lakers, they'll be facing the most playoff-experienced team in the west. Regardless of their age, youth was not the reason why they lost to Dallas last year, but that's really about the most significant weapon the Grizzlies can throw at the Lakers.
For the most part, Memphis got through San Antonio and was 1 win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals because no one expected them to be a threat at all. That won't be the case this upcoming season.
After seeing first-hand what they can do as a team, the Grizzlies should come out of the gates confident when the season starts. Should the lockout end in time enough, the Lakers will play them 4 times starting in Memphis on Nov. 22nd.
We'll see what changes Randolph will make against Gasol and how Artest defends Gay throughout their season series. That should give us all an idea of what to expect should these 2 teams meet in the playoffs.
Still, I don't see the Lakers having too much trouble in this series.
Previous "The Competition" San Antonio Spurs.
