| 03 October 2011
This is competition #1 in the Western Conference
Will the Dallas Mavericks win back-to-back titles next season? Or are they going to be another one of those one-and-done teams?
A couple of questions that will be on the minds of everyone, but only time could answer.
But if you like history, then all signs say it's the latter. No team in this post-Jordan era have won consecutive titles other than the Lakers. Not the Pistons. Not the Spurs. And, certainly not the Celtics.
However, that doesn't mean the Mavs are totally incapable of repeating. If Mark Cuban keeps the core together (and Jason Kidd doesn't retire), who knows what they can or can't do next season?
Afterall, look at what they did to win the title. They defeated 2 young teams, including winning 3 straight games against Kevin Durant and company to win the Western Conference Finals. They dethroned the reigning 2-time champs in 4 games, and they outlasted the team in the Finals who was billed to win the title after they got passed the Boston Celtics.
Destined or not, the Mavs were probably the last team anyone would've picked out of the 4 remaining teams in the west in the 2nd round to even get to the Finals. And to even go toe-to-toe with the likes of Miami, Boston or Chicago? Forget it.
But if the Lakers and the Mavs were to meet again in the playoffs, it should be an epic rematch. Can Dallas do it again or will the Lakers deliver a nasty payback?
Matching Up
POINT GUARD: This is the one and only series where Derek Fisher isn't going to be as big of a concern as any other series. In fact, I expect him to play against Dallas like all the hard work he's putting through the negotiation table with the NBA owners is to not miss his chance at getting back at the Mavs as soon as possible. If he counters Kidd's defensive performance with his offense and aggressive overall play, chalk one up for the Lakers. Advantage: EVEN.
SHOOTING GUARD: DeShawn Stevenson is an unrestricted free agent. Dallas says they want him back but insured themselves by acquiring former but disgruntled Trailblazer Rudy Fernandez just in case Stevenson asks for too much to stay in Big D. Ultimately however, it doesn't really matter since Kidd turned out to be the better defender against Bryant than anyone, including DeShawn, Rick Carlisle put on him last year. But does anyone really think Kidd can stop Kobe this time around? Yeah, neither do I. Advantage: LAKERS
SMALL FORWARD: There's a good chance that Mike Brown is going to utilize Metta World Peace a little different defensively than Phil Jackson ever did against this team. Dallas offers no one Metta needs to guard one-on-one and has no one who can stop him in the post, so look for him to play a lot of help defense anywhere on the floor and post up on offense as much as Brown and his teammates allow him. Phil loved to use Kobe as a roamer on defense, but I have a feeling Brown will put an end to that to save Bryant's legs. If Metta is given this much freedom defensively, he potentially has a better chance of winning this matchup against Marion because his offensive production tend to improve when he's clicking on the other end of the floor (and vice-versa). Advantage: LAKERS
POWER FORWARD: Obviously, the most anticipated matchup of this series. In their Eurobasket game against one another, Pau Gasol defended Dirk Nowitzki pretty well holding him to 41.2% shooting while matching his total point production with 19. But, I'd like to say that Brown will instruct Pau on how to guard Dirk better than in the past. If Gasol can stop Dirk from scoring above 20 points the entire series like he did in Game 1 of last year's 2nd round, Dallas is in deep trouble. Consequentially, if Dirk has a tough time stopping Pau (who is also salivating at the chance to redeem himself in this series), it could very well be over for Dallas. Advantage: LAKERS
CENTER: Unless Cuban can pull Dwight Howard out of Orlando next year, the Mavs will have no one to stop Andrew Bynum, especially in this rematch. Remember, Bynum was one of the players who expressed frustration on a personal level for losing the series last year and worked hard in improving his game over this extended off-season, so this is going to be a series he's very much looking forward to. Advantage: LAKERS
BENCH: How well each bench can support their team will be extremely crucial to this series. Last year, the reserves for Dallas obliterated the Laker bench. Hence the 4-game sweep of the former 2-time defending champs. There's only so much Odom can do, and the rest of the bench have too many question marks hanging over their head whether or not they can perform at a championship-level. Advantage: MAVERICKS
COACHING: Carlisle may have been an overlooked head coach before, but a team's success is the direct result of how well a team is run at the helm. Sure, he's finally earned a ring, but he still have yet to convince the entire league that last year was no fluke. Then again, Brown has yet to win one as a head coach. Will he be the first Laker coach not named Phil Jackson to get a ring since Pat Riley? We shall see. Advantage: MAVERICKS
The Series Changers
LAKERS: Lamar Odom
Odom only had 1 double-double in the entire series against the Mavs last season. The Lakers happened to have their narrowest defeat (96-94) of the series in that same game. If he stays aggressive on offense and around the boards, there's not a single reserve for the Mavs to counter his production on the floor. Not only that, he'll keep Nowitzki on his heels defensively if he constantly attack him on offense.
MAVERICKS: Jason Terry
Terry averaged 19.7 points per game off the bench against the Lakers in the playoffs last season because no one paid closer attention to him the entire time. Yeah, he made some tough, contested shots, but he did most of his damage getting wide open shots. It remains to be seen how the Lakers play defense against teams like the Mavs next season. But if Terry can duplicate his scoring, Dallas has a good chance of winning again.
Watch Out For...
Jason Kidd: He's got a taste of what it's like being called a champion. Now that he knows what it takes for him to help get his team a title, he should be even more efficient and direct in his defensive execution next season. Making Kobe constantly take tough shots and give up the ball are reasons why he was surprisingly effective against Bryant, and I don't see why he wouldn't be confident guarding him once again. However, I just don't know if he'll be as successful should Kobe come into the series healthier than before.
Key Matchup
Pau Gasol vs. Dirk Nowitzki: What else? Two guys who were on the opposite end of the relevancy spectrum last year. If their head-to-head showdown in their European game is any indication on how this matchup will go, then the Lakers are in good shape.
Keys for the Lakers
Dirk Nowitzki: If the Lakers want to beat Dallas, they will need to force Dirk to put the ball on the floor by riding his right shoulder each and everytime down. The Lakers allowed Nowitzki settle in his comfort zone way too many times last season and paid a severe prize. Needless to say, that has got to stop! It will also be equally important for guys like Gasol and Odom to constantly attack him on offense to get him in foul trouble and to have him spend more energy than he wants to. They say Dirk is an underrated defender. The Lakers should make him prove it.
The Outcome
If the Lakers and the Mavs were to meet again in the playoffs, it will most likely be in the Western Conference Finals. Of course, that all depends upon a number of factors with a lot of emphasis on where each team gets seeded in the west.
Dallas was able to ambush everyone last year because, frankly, no one expected them to be a threat after the 1st round. That will surely not happen again as every single team in the league will be gunning for them next season. The question is: are they going to be as team-oriented and as focused come playoff time to defend their title?
They'll pretend that they won't be the team to beat, at least, in the west because they need to continue to think that the NBA is still laughing at them for having the distinction of perennial underachievers in the playoffs simply for reasons that they don't know any other way to compete other than as underdogs. In fact, I expect Terry and Cuban to carry an underdog sentiment in all of their interviews next season.
Unfortunately, what they think or say about themselves will not matter against a bristling Laker team.
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