| 20 October 2011
This is competition #3 in the Eastern Conference.
Even after improving their regular season games with 6 more wins last year than they did during the 2009-2010 season, it's no longer comfortable to say that the Boston Celtics have as good of a shot at another title as before. That's because the collective age of their core has become more of an issue now than ever.
Last year's bout with the Miami Heat in the 2nd round pretty much laid out the tell-tale signs of what's to expect out of this team from here on out. While the Lakers are starting to get some of those Geritol jokes at their expense, the Celtics are still dinosaurs compared to them.
Four of the 5 starters for Boston are well over 30 and have an average age of 34. Yes, they swept the New York Knicks in the opening round, but the Knicks aren't exactly the barometer of how any team is going to succeed in the playoffs let alone win 4 games in the Finals. With Miami's more potent version of their Big 3 and the rising Chicago Bulls in the east, it would be ridiculous to think that the Celtics can withstand the frenetic pace while outworking and outhustling these 2 teams to earn a place back to the big dance.
But if the planets align for Boston, and they go through the Eastern Conference to reunite with the Lakers in the Finals for the 3rd time in 5 years, are the Celtics still dangerous enough of a matchup for the purple and gold?
Matching Up
POINT GUARD: Derek Fisher rarely, if ever, covered Rajon Rondo in the 2010 Finals, so I don't expect any different this time around, unless Mike Brown says otherwise. But if we're to consider the importance of each player to their team, I will have to give this one to... Advantage: CELTICS
SHOOTING GUARD: Uh-oh, there's still no Tony Allen or James Posey for Ray Allen to hide behind. Advantage: LAKERS
SMALL FORWARDS: Metta World Peace doesn't need to score much if he could keep Paul Pierce in check. Boston decided to leave Metta open a lot in 2010, and they got burned more often than not. But, I don't know if Doc Rivers can afford to leave Allen out on that island by himself against Kobe without sending Pierce in to help out. With Pierce having no overwhelming advantage over Metta, I don't see this matchup going to Beantown's side. Advantage: LAKERS
POWER FORWARD: Kevin Garnett may be the smartest defender Pau Gasol will ever see in the post-season, but Gasol will definitely be the most intelligent player KG will ever face in the playoffs as well. Toughness and intensity didn't serve Garnett much versus the Big Spaniard last time they met because he found out that Pau isn't as soft as people made him believe. Let's also not forget that Garnett is a player that always lights a fire under Gasol after what happened to this matchup in 2008. Advantage: LAKERS
CENTER: Let's see. No Kendrick Perkins and no Rasheed Wallace. Hmmm.... Advantage: LAKERS
BENCH: Glen Davis and Nate Robinson turned out to be the only bruisers off of the bench for the Celtics in 2010. With Robinson gone and a good possibility that Davis will not be resigned, Jeff Green is slated to be the next 6th Man for them. While Green has the potential to be a difference-maker, it's unknown whether or not he can elevate his game to anywhere close to what he did with the Oklahoma City Thunder where he averaged 11.8 points and 4.7 rebounds in the playoffs. Until he does, this one goes to... Advantage: LAKERS
COACHING: Doc Rivers is considered to be one of the top coaches in the league today and has a ring to show for it. While that topic is arguable, Brown still has to prove that he can win a title as a head coach. He certainly has his best chance now with the Lakers, but until the lockout ends, Laker fans are still wondering if the front office made a sound decision of hiring him. But as far as head-to-head coaching is concerned, Rivers has yet to lose a playoff series (2010, 2008) against Brown. Advantage: CELTICS
The Series Changers
LAKERS: Andrew Bynum
With absolutely no one who can stop him in the post, Bynum's production will be the first and last thing that will emphatically decide this Finals rematch. That is, of course, if Andrew can finally get to the Finals unscathed with no injuries.
CELTICS: Jeff Green
As I alluded to earlier, Green is the X factor for the Celtics simply because he has more room for growth than any of the top 6 players for this team. With the Thunder, he had a different role surrounded by a younger, deeper team. But in Boston, he'll most likely be the go-to guy coming off the bench for either Pierce or Garnett. He certainly looked uncomfortable with his new team and new role last season and never could get used to it enough to really matter when they needed him in the playoffs. But will he ever become that guy Boston traded him for? We'll see.
Watch Out For...
Rajon Rondo: Even with the Big 3 highlighting this team, much of what the Celtics does revolves around their starting point guard. While he still have yet to develop a jumpshot, Rondo is still talented enough to run havoc against any team. Versus the Lakers, his rebounding, passing and speed forced the Lakers into putting Bryant on him which pretty much ended his effectiveness the rest of the way. Two years later, Rondo has the benefit of the doubt that he learned a lot from that Finals. If he did, Boston stand a better chance.
Key Matchup
Metta World Peace vs. Paul Pierce: The rematch in 2010 had Gasol vs. Garnett pegged as the key matchup by a number of people. That's no longer the case this time around. Being the youngest out of the Big 3 and having the ability to shoot the 3 and post-up on offense, Pierce have the best chance of leading the Celtics in this 3rd meeting.
Unfortunately, he's not the athletic, scoring machine-type player that gives the most problems to Metta. Defensively, Pierce isn't known as a solid post-defender and isn't strong enough to keep Metta from bowling over him.
For Pierce to have any hope of winning this matchup, he'll need plenty of screens set-up for him on offense and a lot of help from his teammates defensively. As for Metta, he'll need to stay aggressive and play smart on both sides of the floor.
Keys For The Lakers
Inside Presence: This is where the Lakers can really destroy the Celtics on either end of the floor. As long as Pau and Andrew keep their foot on the pedal and doesn't let anything easy go for anyone wearing green on the defensive end, this reunion will be a nightmare for Boston.
Defensive Rotation: The Celtics are really a perimeter team in disguise. If the Lakers are crisp and smart with their rotation like they did in Game 7, the Celtics are done.
Coaching: Rivers is good at making adjustments, so Brown will need to be at least as equally wily with his. If he does, he'll put more pressure on Doc to come up with more creative ways to use his aging Big 3 and his thinner bench.
The Outcome
It will take a near-miracle for Boston to get passed both Miami and Chicago to get to the Finals this upcoming season. Even at that, they will need to do more than they did in 2010 to beat the Lakers for the title.
Fatigue (not the absence of Perkins) from running up and down the court as well as from all the logged air miles really cost the Celtics the championship in the 4th quarter of Game 7. Now that they're even older, things aren't looking so bright for them against any team after the 2nd round.
No doubt the Celtics have some big decisions to make once the lockout is lifted. Do they keep their core and hope for the best or do they start rebuilding now while their Big 3 still have some trade value?
Both Garnett and Allen are on the final year of their contract. But at 35 and 36 years-old respectively with a combined salary of $31 million (and with the new salary cap still being negotiated), how many suitors can they actually find willing to help them out without asking for future 1st rounders and/or any of their younger key role players?
With both current rosters, the Lakers are clearly the better the team. Then again, the Lakers aren't the only team that can say that against Boston.
The general read from the Lakers is they're hungry again for another title. How much hungry exactly? That remains to be seen. But, seeing the Celtics standing in their way of that 18th banner will push them like no other team could. Yeah, Boston can say the same, but having the lesser and older team turns that hope into a pipe dream.
Previous "The Competition": ORLANDO MAGIC, OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, SAN ANTONIO SPURS.
